Future natural disturbances may reduce the economic value of forests but create opportunities for adaptation
Former Norway spruce forest in Thuringia. Image courtesy: Dominik Thom
Europe is increasingly affected by forest disturbances such as windthrow, bark beetles, and wildfires that are intensifying under climate change. A recent study published in Nature Climate Change, with contributions from the Precilience partner TU Dresden, assesses the future costs of these disturbances using European-wide datasets and advanced simulation modelling techniques.
Regional Disturbance Patterns
The study simulated forest dynamics and disturbance impacts across three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, i.e., a mild, moderate, and high emission scenario) at a 16 km resolution. The findings suggest that natural disturbances will strongly increase across Europe by the end of the century and may reach unprecedented levels.
An unprecedented bark beetle outbreak affected Norway spruce forests in Central Germany during the 2018 – 2020 drought. Such large-scale disturbance events are expected to become more frequent across Europe. The extensive spatial impact of the outbreak left many areas without a protective forest microclimate, posing significant challenges for the successful establishment of climate-resilient tree species during reforestation. Image courtesy: Dominik Thom
Compared to other regions, northern European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia) are projected to experience only moderate disturbance-related losses in the economic value of forests. However, the study shows a non-linear trend: under mild climate change (RCP2.6), forest value in northern countries may decline by around €5 billion by 2100, while under high emissions (RCP8.5), losses could reach €30 billion. Conversely, the study has also shown that climate change could potentially boost forest productivity in northern Europe, which might offset losses induced by disturbances. Yet, it should be noted that productivity gains may be overestimated, as extreme weather effects are not fully captured in the models.
Effects of changing forest productivity and disturbance on forest value in Europe (Mohr et al., 2025). The historical scenario reflects climate conditions from 1981 to 2005, while RCP scenarios are based on projections for the period 2076 to 2100. Blue bars indicate losses in forest value resulting from increased disturbance, whereas green bars represent gains due to enhanced productivity. Dots show the net change in forest value relative to historical conditions.
Reducing the Vulnerability of Northern Forests
Even if disturbance-induced value losses are less pronounced in northern forests as compared to other European forests, the projected losses remain significant for forest managers. One adaptation strategy explored in the study is shortening rotation periods (i.e., harvesting trees earlier). While this reduces the time forests are vulnerable to disturbance, it may also deviate from the economically optimal harvest age. The simulations suggest that reducing rotation lengths by 10–20 years could improve the overall economic value of spruce- and pine-dominated forests in northern Europe.
Tree Species Suitability after Major Disturbance Events
While the study draws a relatively optimistic picture for the timber-producing sector in northern countries as compared to other parts or Europe, it is important to recognise that disturbances are still expected to increase in extent, frequency, and severity across many parts of the region. This underscores the need to explore additional adaptation strategies in response to climate change. Although climate change brings risks and uncertainties, it may also open new opportunities for adaptive forest management. In particular, northern regions may experience climatic conditions that become increasingly favourable for Central European tree species, creating potential for assisted migration. Disturbed areas, especially those lacking a forest microclimate, could offer valuable space for introducing such species. However, the absence of canopy cover still poses challenges, as many Central European species, such as silver fir or European beech, are vulnerable to late frost. Additionally, rising water stress under climate change further limits the range of species that can successfully establish on these sites.
To evaluate the potential of tree species for regenerating severely disturbed sites, a team from TU Dresden assessed the suitability of 53 European and exotic tree species, which was recently published in Forest Ecology and Management. Based on an extensive literature review and synthesis of multiple expert systems, the study found that nearly half of the evaluated species could be classified as suitable or highly suitable for regenerating disturbed sites, with many being native to Europe.
Drought and late frost tolerance of 53 tree species (Thom et al., 2026). Colors indicate each species’ suitability score on a scale from 1 to 5 for regenerating large disturbed areas. Circles represent broadleaved species, while squares denote conifers. The suitability scores can be interpreted as follows: values above 4 indicate very suitable species, scores between 3 and 4 reflect suitable species, values between 2 and 3 correspond to partially suitable species, and scores below 2 indicate species considered unsuitable for sites lacking a forest microclimate.
Examples for species with a high potential to thrive under harsh site conditions include Sorbus species (rowan, whitebeam, and wild service tree), as well as small-leaved lime, field maple, and wild cherry. This suggests that not only light-demanding pioneer species, but also moderately shade-tolerant trees, can cope with the environmental stressors typical of disturbed areas lacking a forest microclimate. Although many of these species are not of high commercial value, they can contribute significantly to biodiversity and other ecosystem services. To enhance the resilience of future northern forests, it is therefore advisable to integrate such species into (hemi-) boreal landscapes. This could be achieved by introducing them as individual trees, groups, or small stands. Such an approach would increase future options to harness them for natural regeneration as management outcomes become more and more uncertain under climate change.
In addition to frost and drought tolerance, species selection must also consider soil characteristics. The study therefore compiled information on nutrient requirements and tolerance to waterlogging for the 53 species. Several top-ranked species appear well adapted to nutrient-poor soils, while only a few are likely to tolerate waterlogged conditions. This suggests that poor sandy soils may offer more flexibility for diversification than wet or compacted sites.
Nutrient requirements and waterlogging tolerance of 53 tree species (Thom et al., 2026). Colors indicate each species’ suitability score (scale: 1 to 5). Circles represent broadleaved species, while squares denote conifers. The scores reflect how well each species is suited to site conditions in terms of nutrient demand and tolerance to waterlogged soils.
Another promising adaptation strategy is to enhance forest structural complexity. The study thus also evaluated the ability of the 53 species to thrive in complex forest structures. Notably, many of the suitable species exhibit moderate to high shade tolerance, indicating high potential for species to grow in structurally diverse forest systems.
Shade tolerance of 53 tree species. Colours represent each species’ suitability score on a scale from 1 to 5 (Thom et al., 2026). The frequency distribution shown above the figure suggests that shade tolerance among the assessed species is relatively evenly spread, with a slight concentration toward the lower end of the tolerance scale.
Implications for Northern Forestry
In summary, the results of these two new studies present a fairly optimistic outlook for commercial forestry in northern countries. They also highlight multiple opportunities to reduce disturbance risks and increase forest resilience to climate change, including shortening rotation times, and increasing species diversity as well as forest structures. However, it should be noted that these results come with several uncertainties and should thus be interpreted with caution. In Precilience, we will continue testing adaptive forest management strategies under climate change to provide guidance for coping with an increasingly uncertain future.
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References
Mohr, J.S., Bastit, F., Grünig, M., Knoke, T., Rammer, W., Senf, C., Thom, D., Seidl, R., 2025. Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 1078–1083. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9
Thom, D., Wimmler, M.-C., Le Berre, S., Wöhlbrandt, A., Fischer, H., Füger, F., Plümpe, K., Schrewe, F., Skibbe, K., Thumb Von Neuburg, B., Tiebel, K., 2026. Coping with novel disturbance regimes: Suitability of 53 tree species for regenerating Central European forests. Forest Ecology and Management 599, 123247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123247